Structural Drivers of Inflation: Implications for the Global Economy and Industries

July 2024

The briefing explores structural drivers of inflation and their impact on the global economy and business environment. Factors such as demographics changes, globalisation reset, decarbonisation, AI revolution and higher debt levels would add to the higher price pressures. Companies will need to monitor and adapt to the changing macro environment.

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Key findings

Structural drivers of inflation become more visible

Global inflationary pressures are easing as a result ofsupply chain improvement and effective monetary policies, yet at the same time structural drivers of inflation become more visible. Changes in the labour markets, geopolitical tensions and technology changes are expected to add to the higher price pressures in the long term.

Demographic changes among the highest risks for economies

Demographic changes and shrinking labour pool will be among the key challenges to the global economy over the next decade. Worker shortage will continue to add to the wage pressures and is likely to slow down productivity growth. This could add 0.2-0.4 p.p. to the baseline inflation.

Geopolitical tensions contribute to higher inflationary risks

Persistent geopolitical tensions lead to higher economic fragmentation and loss of some efficiency gains across the global supply chains. Companies will need to upgrade existing supply and production networks and may face higher costs of input materials. This could add 0.2-0.5 p.p. to the baseline inflation.

High debt levels make higher inflation more tolerable

Global economy enjoyed a decade of low interest rate environment, and this led to rising private and public debt levels. This can alter behaviour of the market participants in the long term and make higher inflation more tolerable, as it reduces real value of debts.

Companies will need to react to changing consumer spending

Higher price pressures will impact consumers by eroding their purchasing power and directly increasing costs of utilities and essential goods. Companies will need to find ways how to improve operational efficiency and provide greater value for money for consumers.

Why read this report?
Key findings
Inflationary pressures across countries ease, but remain above long-term average
Structural drivers of inflation are forecast to become more visible over the medium term
Identifying structural drivers of inflation
Shrinking labour pool to impact labour supply, productivity and wages
Tight labour markets to create persistent cost pressures, leading to higher inflation
Companies will need to attract elderly workers and improve skills to ease worker shortages
Case study: Toyota aims to retain older workers for longer
Case study: Raytheon and NY Creates collaborate to improve workers’ skills
Globalisation reset can cause inflationary pressures by eliminating efficiency gains
Global trade restructuring can shrink supplier pool, yet final effects remain uncertain
Performance of China’s manufacturing sector will determine global price trends
Production diversification to cause higher cost pressures as productivity growth slows
Companies will need to balance growth and cost discipline to succeed
Case study: Siemens to invest in a new Singapore factory to boost resilience and innovation
Case study: Tesla builds a new Gigafactory in Mexico seeking to cut costs and nearshore
Decarbonisation efforts can intensify supply-side inflationary pressures
Decarbonisation would largely impact industries with high energy consumption
Investments in green electricity and targeted policies can help to ease inflationary effects
Case study: ArcelorMittal to build two hydrogen-powered steel plants
AI and digital revolutions can add to inflation through higher electricity and metals prices
ICT services can increase competition for green electricity and lead to higher prices
AI revolution to drive higher demand of copper
Focus on operational efficiency can help to ease external shocks
High debt levels can make higher inflation more tolerable
Looser fiscal policies and rising inflation can lead to higher interest rates for longer
Cost discipline and value for consumers can help navigate through higher interest rates
Structural drivers of inflation: How to win
Evolution of structural drivers of inflation
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