Sales of baked goods in Eastern Europe recorded slightly slower real value growth in 2020 than a year earlier. Although the arrival of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the region saw consumers stockpiling certain products, this did not extend to bread in the region’s biggest market of Russia, due to the short shelf life of this product, with unpackaged baked goods also hit by hygiene concerns. Stagnating or very modest annual growth rates are expected in the region from 2021.
This report comes in PPT.
With most national economies growing in the region and many markets also increasingly seeing sales of higher-priced healthy baked goods (eg wholegrain, multigrain, rye, spelt), 2019 saw annual growth peak at almost 3% in real value terms in 2019.
Although baked goods recorded stronger growth in some Eastern European countries in 2020, with consumers prioritising staples during the pandemic, sales in Russia declined in this year, with COVID-19 having a negative impact on leavened bread, due to its short shelf life, leading to a lack of consumer stockpiling that had been seen with other staples. In addition, there were hygiene concerns with unpackaged baked goods, which still lead sales, especially in leavened bread. Furthermore, with consumers spending more time at home during lockdowns, there was a greater prevalence of home-cooking, along with an uptick in consumers baking their own bread.
Packaged baked goods were benefitting from the pandemic, as were frozen baked goods and mixed desserts. Although the latter two categories are still relatively small product areas, mixed desserts recorded growth thanks to increased levels of home-baking, while frozen products were convenient for stockpiling at home, being conveniently to hand as and when needed.
Baked goods is expected to see only modest annual growth in real value terms in the region in the post-2020 period, with bread, pastries and cakes expected to be in decline in Russia for much of the forecast period. Unpackaged products will continue to underperform their packaged counterparts, while HW products will be among the more dynamic categories, along with frozen baked goods.
In packaged food we consider two aspects of food sales: 1) Retail sales. 2) Foodservice. Retail sales is defined as sales through establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. This excludes hotels, restaurant, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition EXCLUDES the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg impulse confectionery bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. Foodservice sales is defined as sales to consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. Outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semicaptive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. 1) Retail refers to units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. 2) Leisure refers to units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. 3) Travel refers to units located in based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Beyond the scope of the foodservice research are captive foodservice units that serve captive populations around institutions such as hospitals, schools, and prisons. This is also known as institutional sales.
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