This report analyses Euromonitor International’s forecast for the Packaged Food Industry. This quarterly update reflects Euromonitor International’s updated forecast(s) based on changes that have occurred between Q1 and Q2, in terms of economic outlook, information, or otherwise.
This report comes in PPT.
Euromonitor’s 2021-2025 baseline forecast for the packaged food industry, published in February 2021, has been revised in line with the new macroeconomic update. Growth in demand for packaged food globally is projected to be more robust than expected. Packaged food volume is set to grow by 0.6% in 2021, an upgrade from 0.1% which was previously projected in the Q1 update in February 2021.
Retail packaged food in the US had the largest absolute revision in the Q2 update due to the faster than expected recovery of the US economy, helped in part by the efficacy of the country’s vaccination rollout, which has allowed economic activity to slowly resume back to normal. As the biggest market for packaged food in value terms, the US is the key market driving the upgrade adjustment globally.
As lockdowns and limited mobility are extended towards 2021, consumers continued to consume more at home instead of dining out. Demand for categories such as rice, pasta and noodles and processed meat and seafood remained strong as cooking habits developed during the 2020 lockdowns persisted well over 2021.
Healthy living and plant-based alternatives are both consumer-driven trends that companies have been quick to tackle and adapt to, especially since the former is at the forefront of consumer concerns amidst the ongoing pandemic. Nonetheless, taste is king, and companies need to ensure that product offerings debunk the misconception that healthy foods only taste bland. The acquisition by Hershey of Lily's and Nestle's launch of pea milk alternative Wunda during Q2 are examples of manufacturers developing into these fast-growing trends.
In packaged food we consider two aspects of food sales: 1) Retail sales. 2) Foodservice. Retail sales is defined as sales through establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. This excludes hotels, restaurant, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition EXCLUDES the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg impulse confectionery bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. Foodservice sales is defined as sales to consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. Outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semicaptive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. 1) Retail refers to units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. 2) Leisure refers to units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. 3) Travel refers to units located in based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Beyond the scope of the foodservice research are captive foodservice units that serve captive populations around institutions such as hospitals, schools, and prisons. This is also known as institutional sales.
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