vilnius
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Gaile is responsible for improving automation processes for Euromonitor's Economies and Consumers country reports.
Gaile has research experience across various Economies and Consumers topics, analysing data to produce insights. Before joining Euromonitor, Gaile worked in the Project Management department of the Lithuanian Investment Promotion Agency.
Our economic growth forecasts for the US have been revised downwards for 2025 at the same time as inflation forecasts have risen. In this video, Lan Ha, Head of Insights for Economies and Consumers, examines the impact of continuing tariffs and escalations of the trade war, which could push the US economy into recession with inflation rising to 6-7%. This stagflation scenario complicates business strategies, threatening profit margins and requiring new growth avenues. However, scenario planning can help businesses navigate this uncertain environment and identify new growth opportunities.
The global economy has witnessed growing headwinds since early 2025, as trade policy shocks from the US weigh on the global supply chain and business and consumer confidence.
President Trump’s 2025 package of higher tariffs, tax cuts and tighter immigration controls is reshaping US consumer markets. Uncertainty and rising inflation expectations are dampening demand, and spending growth across all categories is expected to moderate, with no clear winners. While many incentives may sunset with the 2029 term limit, elevated tariffs and weaker investment incentives are likely to suppress confidence and spending for at least another two years post-administration.