Tapping the Potential of ASEAN

October 2022

Emerging Asia has been one of the most exciting regions in emerging markets during the last two decades and this trend is expected to continue, though the pace of growth has slowed down as the economies transform and mature. By 2040, emerging Asia will account for almost a third of global GDP and more than a quarter of consumer spending, highlighting huge opportunities for business and investors. Risks will remain, requiring business to be agile to identify sweet spots and overcome challenges.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key findings

ASEAN is an economic powerhouse

In 2021, ASEAN’s GDP stood at USD3.2 trillion - this would make it the fifth largest economy globally if it were a country, behind the US, China, Japan and Germany. By 2040, the region is expected to account for 4.4% of the global economy - up from 3.4% in 2021 and just 1.7% in 2000.

Digital economy

Pushed by rising internet access and uptake of digital devices, the region is expected to offer opportunities in e-commerce and other digital services. The launch of the ASEAN Digital Masterplan 2025, will help guide the region to better promoting and integrating digital services for consumers and businesses.

Diversification

Amid global trade tensions, disruptions to supply chains and the shift to the green economy, the ASEAN bloc has emerged as an alternative location for business diversification. With competitive labour costs, an improving business environment and large prospects in green energy, investors and ASEAN economies are well placed to benefit.

Middle class

The ASEAN region is projected to be home to 63 million middle-class households by 2040 - a rise of 12.5 million over 2021-2040. This will contribute to the region’s retailing market, especially in urban areas. By 2040, consumer expenditure in the ASEAN bloc is expected to rise by 130%, in real terms, and will account for 5.1% of the global market - up from 3.5% in 2021.

Challenges

Despite the positives, population ageing, high levels of corruption and rising government debt will remain some of the key challenges for the region’s economies. Challenges need to be considered by investors weighing up the pros and cons of operating in the region, which also needs to be assessed individually at country and city levels.

ASEAN countries have differences

Despite being a regional bloc, ASEAN economies are at different levels of development with some such as Singapore and Malaysia being on a par with developed economies while others including Laos and Myanmar are still finding their feet. This will require different approaches to harnessing their strengths and weaknesses as targets of investment.

Focus on strategies to win

Building presence in the ASEAN region is key for companies seeking large growth opportunities. Focusing on the green economy, digital economy and being geographically diverse on the choices of investment in the region are key to building a successful business strategy.

 

Scope
Key findings (1/2)
Key findings (2/2)
ASEAN today
ASEAN economies display strong growth prospects but with large variations
ASEAN region boasts low economic wealth despite high growth prospects
Key areas of opportunity in ASEAN
Digital economy: ASEAN’s digital economy shifts to open opportunities in e-commerce
Digital economy: Start-up ecosystem stimulated by rising digitalisation
Case study: Fintech unicorn Xendit secures investments for further growth
Diversification: ASEAN offers diversification opportunities in manufacturing
Case study: Apple suppliers eye on further expansion in Vietnam
Diversification: RCEP - to boost more robust and diverse trade structures
Diversification: Green economy shift to help diversify the energy sector
Case study: Danish Ørsted has chosen Vietnam for its next wind power investment
Diversification: Global shortage of raw materials to benefit ASEAN commodities exports
Middle class: Income growth is expected to drive retailing in the ASEAN region
Middle class: Cities are growing consumer markets of the future
7-Eleven opens its first store in Cambodia’s capital and largest city, Phnom Penh
Southeast Asian economies will not evade the pressures of population ageing
Prevalent corruption limits business environment improvement
Generous post-pandemic investments to mitigate infrastructure disparities within ASEAN
Low educational attainment translates into weak productivity levels in ASEAN countries
Rising government debt raises vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks
Severe effects of climate change threaten future development of ASEAN countries
Singapore: Most business-friendly economy in ASEAN challenged by demographic ageing
Malaysia : Highly exporting economy threatened by dependence on China and corruption
Indonesia: A young consumer base benefiting from structural reforms
Thailand : A service economy driven by middle class penetration
Philippines: A market with a competitive and highly skilled workforce focused on electronics
Vietnam: A regional trade hub aiming at digital transformation
Brunei: A wealthy economy heavily reliant on natural resources
Laos: An expanding consumer base challenged by weak purchasing power
Myanmar: A manufacturing economy struggling with political freedom
Cambodia: Fastest-growing economy with a focus on maintaining sustainable debt levels
ASEAN of the Future
Key points from the report
Strategies to win
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