Affordability, Value and Soft Drinks

February 2025

Affordability is reshaping consumer priorities as cost-of-living challenges persist, driving demand for budget-friendly brands. Health and functionality are key focus areas, with hydration powders and gut-health drinks growing. Emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and APAC lead soft drinks volume growth, requiring localised strategies. Demographic shifts and fragmented retail channels add complexity, pushing brands to adapt through innovation, regional partnerships and tailored products.

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Key Findings

Affordability pressure reshapes consumer priorities, as cost-of-living challenges continue

Rising prices in global soft drinks have reshaped consumer behaviour, with affordability emerging as a critical (but far from the only) component of the current value equation. Global soft drinks brand owners face mounting challenges to balance the need for accessible pricing strategies with profitability. Consumers demand budget-friendly formats, driving private label and local B-brands.

Health, wellness and functionality are areas of consumer investment

Consumers prioritise health, wellness, nutrition and productivity - driving demand for functional, and lo/no sugar drinks. Hydration powders, energy, ORS, gut-health drinks and adaptogen-based adult soft drinks have been success stories in an otherwise challenging growth environment. Bringing these products to mass channels and mid-/low-income consumers remains a challenge.

Emerging Africa, Middle East and APAC lead soft drinks volume outlook

The volume outlook over 2025-2029 hinges on the pace of commercial beverage adoption in rising consumer markets, finding a path for affordable (yet profitable) branded options in a fragmented, largely informal retail environments. Localised brand strategies, improved infrastructure and regional brand partnerships will be key to unlocking the vast potential of these beverage markets.

Demographic shifts further complicate consumer behaviour and beverage demand

Ageing populations in developed markets, smaller household sizes, declining birth rates and urbanisation are all influencing the longer-term notion of what “affordability” means in the drinks industry. Over the next decade, this may shape new demand in areas such as nutrient-dense drinks, more space-efficient packaging units and more convenient, localised distribution.

The soft drinks channel landscape only becomes more fragmented

The surge of value-driven retail channels (particularly club, grocery discounters and vending) seems unlikely to abate in the short term. Local/Regional foodservice banners gain share in key areas such as on-trade RTD coffee and tea. Tailored, local flavours, ingredients and menu items become key as multinational producers face a heightened threat from rising local stars.

Why read this report?
Key findings
The industry begins 2025 facing a two-year volume slump in developed markets
Since 2018, non-alcoholic beverage expenditure has outpaced disposable income
In Europe, retail non-alcohol spending is relatively low, but has spiked since 2018
Meanwhile, retail volume grinds to a halt across Western Europe and North America
In the US, most categories of soft drinks have outpaced CPI - particularly CSDs
Lower-income consumers have faced the brunt of price inflation in non-alcohol
Lower-income consumers will continue to pull back from on-trade and impulse
Brands adapt to navigate channel shifts, as consumers shop around and trade down
Demographic changes will further alter the perception of affordability and value
Soft drinks in 2025: The two-step approach to driving both volume and value
A two-step affordability challenge for the global soft drinks industry
Health and price are essential to consumers’ definition of value
GLP-1 will also change how some consumers think about health and engage with drinks
Hydration powders and gut-health CSDs have been post-pandemic success stories
Superoot electrolyte mix exemplifies the blurring beverage-supplement line
Despite tighter budgets, Chinese consumers remain focused on healthier products
For lower-income consumers, health and diet also remain key priorities
Measuring affordability in global soft drinks: Price, wages and consumption
Middle East and Africa and emerging APAC are the primary sources of future volume
There remains huge unrealised potential for commercial beverages globally
Mastery of small, fragmented and independent retail will prove essential
Varun and PepsiCo’s Sting Energy demonstrates the disruptive potential of affordability
The on-premise market for soft drinks will also fragment, as online delivery thrives
Convenience and mobility drive post-pandemic smart vending across Asia
Demand for affordability drives a preference for local and regional alternative brands
Prime is the first lifestyle beverage brand born online, but not the last
Non-alcoholic beer, spirits, RTDs and mixers are emerging as “top shelf” soft drinks
Rising wellness culture invites a “lipstick effect” for functional lifestyle drinks
Beverage brands as lifestyle symbols and fashion accessories
Recommendations/opportunities for growth
Evolution of affordability, value and soft drinks
Questions we are asking

Soft Drinks

This is the aggregation of the following categories; Carbonates, Fruit/vegetable juice, Bottled water, Functional drinks, Concentrates, RTD tea, RTD coffee and Asian speciality drinks.

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