Five Trends Driving Sales of Staple Foods

As we enter 2025, the food price inflation surges of 2022/23 are in the rear-view mirror. Willingness to look beyond price is returning, and factors such as eating healthily and avoiding ultra-processed foods are (re)gaining prominence. However, consumers remain cautious and, overall, cost-driven purchases are remaining front-of-mind.

Inflation slows, but price still drives choices

Headline inflation continues to exceed targets in many major markets, despite the inflation spikes of 2022/23 having receded. For shoppers, prices of many staple food are still increasing, just at a slower rate than previously. This is driving such trends as increased uptake of private label and basic ranges, alongside shopping at warehouse clubs and discounters. Cheaper staple foods have seen the greatest growth: rice, up by 8.6% in value sales terms, was the strongest growing category year-on-year in 2024. And products that required eschewing cheaper options (for example, meat-alternatives versus processed meat) have suffered particularly, as paying extra for purported additional benefits (for example environmental/ethical) became a more difficult choice.

Baked goods’ input costs challenges continue

In 2024, the impact on grain supplies and prices from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced (in 2023, baked goods sales value increased by over 10% year-on-year, while volume sales increased by only 1%). However the category – which, at 44% of all staple foods sales, is the single largest in the industry – was subject to extreme cost pressures over the year from sugar and, particularly, cocoa, significantly impacting categories such as bread, cakes, pastries, dessert pies and tarts (and, outside baked goods, breakfast cereals).

Cocoa prices shot up to all-time highs – in April 2024, the USD12,000 per tonne mark was breached for the first time. Dry weather in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the two largest producers of cocoa beans, massively reduced supply, while ageing farm infrastructure, reduced tree yields and poor working conditions (higher prices not filtering through to farmers) also contributed. The situation remains ongoing: in the 10 years to 2023, prices very rarely topped USD3,000 per tonne. Since March 2024, prices have ranged between USD6,500 and USD12,500 per tonne.

Climate change disruption persists

As demonstrated by the impact on baked goods, climate change continues to cause shortages of key crops in key regions. It can now be relied upon that each year will see weather events (drought, flooding, storms, unseasonable freezes) that will reduce supply of key staple crops, or impact livestock. Particularly concerning on a global scale is the fact that world supplies of key staple foods can be threatened when production relies on just a few countries or regions. Rice, for example, is heavily reliant on the Southeast Asia region; however, 2024 saw reduced soil fertility, drought and typhoons across key countries.

Health interest reasserts influence

While the cost of food remains the number one driving force behind consumers’ choices, evidence from Euromonitor International’s Voice of the Consumer surveys indicates that other considerations are returning to prominence. Chief amongst these are health and nutrition; while 42% of people said these were influential factors when purchasing food, more important perhaps is the 30% who say they are willing to pay more for food with health and nutritional properties. In addition, characteristics such as “all-natural” and organic have seen increases in the percentage of consumers saying they are influential factors (compared with 2023), with many saying they are willing to pay more for food with these characteristics (23% and 17%, respectively).

However, the context of 2022/23 being characterised by high food inflation and customers being squeezed elsewhere (high utility bills, for example) must be remembered. The potential for food prices to rise again is clear, and in 2024, 44% of consumer stated that value for money is influential when buying food (the highest response of all options). More broadly, 72% said the cost of everyday items they buy was going up, down only marginally from 74% in 2023, indicating how consumers feel about the current environment.

Increasing fear of (ultra)processed food

A growing number of consumers are concerned about processed food and, in particular, ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Since the NOVA classification was proposed in 2009, there has been much debate as to which foods should count as processed or ultra-processed, and why. In addition, there remains much disagreement over whether the processing of foods makes them unhealthy, or whether it is rather a correlation between processed foods and high levels of fat, sugar, salt, etc. In one sense, though, the latter does not matter – if consumers come to believe that something is harmful, they will respond accordingly, so for many staple food producers this is a key concern.

Looking ahead

The trends driving staple food purchases may seem particularly challenging – while price remains key, room for manoeuvre is limited – but there are, as always, opportunities. For example, core staple foods (and private label) can continue to benefit by meeting demand for basic products and low prices. As climate change continues to create supply instability and unpredictable impacts on harvests, developments in food tech offer opportunities to create sustainable supply and thus mitigate potential price shocks. And while some staple foods are firmly in the firing line when it comes to fears regarding ultra-processed foods (for example breakfast cereals, cakes and pastries) other staples are likely to benefit compared to foods like snacks or ready meals, for example frozen fruit, rice and shelf stable vegetables.

For more on Staple Foods and the trends driving consumer choices, please see Euromonitor International’s report, The World Market For Staple Foods.