While cost still dominates many people’s food choices, factors such as health positioning, demand for convenience and sustainability are all playing a key role in consumers’ decisions. Fresh food’s health credentials are strengthening further, as ever more consumers become concerned about processed food; however, this positive for the industry must be weighed against the continued tough spending environment. Shoppers are often just seeking the cheapest option and, looking forward, ongoing worldwide trade uncertainty suggests no move away from that soon.
Cost remains top of mind
While headline inflation rates have slowed from 2022/23, many consumers have not experienced any reduction in their food bills. For grocery shoppers, often prices are not decreasing but are just rising more slowly. It is thus not surprising that cost remains the highest priority when choosing food, leading to trends such as increased adoption of private label, buying more from basic ranges, and shopping at discount retailers. As in 2023, the full-year 2024 saw fresh food value sales outpace volume sales across key researched markets.
The current era of uncertainty over the future state of global trade, exacerbated by the Trump Administration’s decisions regarding tariffs, but also following the pandemic and regional conflicts fracturing supply routes, is a key threat to the established and efficient supply of fresh food worldwide. Consumers remain cost-cautious.
Climate change means price spikes
Fresh food production faces ever greater risks, as adverse weather conditions lead to significant disruption. The increasing impact of climate change on food production mean producers must incorporate higher levels of uncertainty into their future planning. Harvest yields may become less predictable, costs may fluctuate, and established supply sources may need adjustments. These factors contribute to increased expenses, potentially resulting in higher prices for consumers.
As a result, sustainability in production is evolving from a marketing tool to a fundamental requirement to mitigate the impacts of climate change. It is becoming essential for ensuring the continued availability of fresh food at reasonable prices for consumers. Addressing this issue also enables producers to fulfil consumer expectations regarding climate change initiatives, and comply with the inevitable regulations that authorities will bring in to safeguard food supply.
Ultra-processed fear helps fresh food
People are increasingly concerned that the food they eat may be harmful to their health because it has been processed – or ultra-processed. This latter term is fast-becoming food’s new bogeyman, superseding “high in sugar” or “high in fat”, for example, and “UPF-free” has already begun appearing as a health claim on packaged foods.
Fresh food benefits from this concern, with single ingredients and a positioning as natural. Although there remains much debate as to which foods should count as processed or ultra-processed, and why, it is clear to consumers that fresh food is not ultra-processed, and as such can be relied upon not to have the negative health effects they fear.
Cooking pressured by convenience demand
While fresh food certainly fits well with consumers’ concerns over healthy eating, it does not always fit well with consumers’ lifestyle demands.
2024 saw a consistent rise in the number of consumers reporting that they are moving away from cooking
Source: Euromonitor International
While the pandemic years opened up time and opportunity for more cooking at home, the aftermath has seen less time available. More workplaces are increasing in-office working, with the highest profile being Amazon, mandating five days in-office per week from January 2025.
For fresh food, this trend requires innovative approaches. While cooking is always going to be necessary for much of the food under this umbrella, highlighting its convenience can be expanded – following the lead of retailers that have in-store signage showing how it can easily be used, for example. For fresh food that does not need cooking in order to eat (eg much fresh fruit, some fresh vegetables) an emphasis on snacking suitability is likely to do particularly well in the current climate, as consumers want natural, unprocessed, low/no-added sugar options, which rules out many packaged snacks.
- Capitalise on lower prices of fresh food, because cost remains key;
- Take advantage of climate change bringing local production (and marketing) opportunities;
- Act on food chosen for health increasingly weighing in fresh food’s favour;
- Position to meet modern demand – as quick, easy to eat, convenient foods that are the healthy, nutritious choice.
For more on fresh food and the trends driving consumer choices, please see Euromonitor International’s report, World Market for Fresh Food.