Cigarettes and Alternative Nicotine Products in Latin America

August 2024

Cigarettes recorded modest volume growth in Latin America in 2023, although value growth was higher, driven by rising prices. E-vapour and heated tobacco products continued to record strong growth, although the development of these categories is still being held back by the ban on legal sales in Brazil and Argentina. However, in the latter country, there are signs that the Milei government is looking to legalise sales of next-generation tobacco products.

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Key findings

Illicit trade continues to impact legal sales

The difficult economic climate, with the pandemic having impacted some consumers’ disposable incomes as well as the recent high inflation rates, has seen smokers increasingly turning to illicit trade for their cigarettes, with a resultant negative impact on legal sales. The share of illicit products in cigarette sales was increasing in most countries in the region in 2023.

Just Brazil to maintain the ban on alternative nicotine products?

Earlier in the review period, e-vapour and heated tobacco products were banned in all of the big three markets in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. However, legal sales of heated tobacco products have been seen in Mexico since 2021, while there is an increasing belief that Argentina could allow legal sales of e-vapour and heated tobacco products over 2023-2028.

Economy cigarettes gaining share in Brazil

Economy cigarettes continued gaining share from the mid-priced segment in Brazil in 2023. This can be attributed to increasing price sensitivity among some consumers in the difficult economic scenario, but also decreasing brand loyalty. This trend has also been driven by players expanding the availability of economy cigarette brands like Camel.

Stricter tobacco legislation for Mexico

From January 2023, new legislation came into effect in Mexico, expanding areas where smoking is prohibited to any workplace, spaces of collective gatherings, all public transportation and all educational establishments. It also prohibited all forms of tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship through any means of communication and dissemination, including the direct and indirect display of tobacco products at points of sale.

Scope
Key findings
High illicit sales levels continue to impact legal sales of cigarettes
Latin America has the lowest per capita consumption rate among the seven regions
Falling unit volume sales expected in Latin America from 2024
Strong growth expected for smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco
Sales in Brazil continue rising despite the falling smoking prevalence rate
Dynamic Colombian market adds the most new sales in the region over 2018-2023
Legal sales continue to lose share to illicit trade in Peru
Heated tobacco products enter the Mexican market
Brazil and Argentina buck the near-universal trend of declining sales in 2018-2023
Flavour capsules continue to be a popular trend in Argentina
Downtrading a major trend in the Mexican cigarettes market
Smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco remains under developed
Smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco still banned in some markets
Small local grocers the main distribution channel for cigarettes in Latin America
Convenience stores an important channel in Mexico
Retail e-commerce is the dominant channel for e-vaping product sales in Chile
Convenience stores gaining share of e-vapour products sales in Colombia
Extremely concentrated competitive landscape for cigarettes
Argentina’s Tabacalera Sarandi gaining share thanks to the demand for cheaper local brands
Multinationals launch new low-price and flavour capsule products in Argentina
Marlboro and Pall Mall continue to lead the brand rankings
BAT dominates e-vaping products and PMI heated tobacco products
Declining unit volume sales of cigarettes expected over the forecast period
Illicit trade expected to account for 40%-plus of sales in a number of countries in 2028
Brazilian sales will be boosted by a continued reduction in illicit trade
Further strong growth expected for both e-vaping and heated tobacco products
Legal sales expected in Argentina before the end of the forecast period
Single-use products expected to be most dynamic in e-vaping
Argentina: Market Context
Argentina: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Bolivia: Market Context
Bolivia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Brazil: Market Context
Brazil: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Chile: Market Context
Chile: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Colombia: Market Context
Colombia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Costa Rica: Market Context
Costa Rica: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Dominican Republic: Market Context
Dominican Republic: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Ecuador: Market Context
Ecuador: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Guatemala: Market Context
Guatemala: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Mexico: Market Context
Mexico: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Peru: Market Context
Peru: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Uruguay: Market Context
Uruguay: Competitive and Retail Landscape

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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