Navigating Diaper Demand in the Baby Bust Economy

June 2025

In a baby bust economy, the baby diaper industry must address declining birth rates by harnessing per capita penetration. This involves targeted portfolio segmentation, evidence-backed wellness enhancement and agile channel strategies. Adjacent areas of broader baby and maternity care and senior hygiene offer scope beyond diapers for long-term growth and customer lifetime value.

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Key Findings

Diaper growth shifts south, with growth requiring a multilayered approach

In a declining birth rate environment, the diaper industry faces stagnant growth, with the underserved developing global south driving the bulk of incremental growth due to income growth and lifestyle shifts. Brands harnessing more targeted portfolio segmentation, tangible wellness benefits and agile channel strategies are better positioned against industry headwinds.

Deepen penetration by targeting neglected users and need gaps

A contracting diaper user base calls for the development of a more specialised, customised assortment and targeted marketing to maximise per capita penetration, which requires benchmarking of the portfolio against diverse user profiles, life occasions and adjacent health needs such as skin conditions and immunity risks.

Premiumise with sharpened wellness positioning

Delayed motherhood and shrinking household sizes support appetite for premiumisation across value tiers, which can be achieved by highlighting products’ core efficacy, promoting halo wellness ingredients and integrating advanced technology for diagnostic and preventative care. Clinical and science backing helps further appeal to health-conscious parents.

Democratise shopper journey through a local lens

Modern parents use diverse and increasingly digital information sources to guide their essential purchases, prioritising affordability, accessibility and authenticity. A marketplace model, influencer marketing, B2B partnerships and tech-driven personalisation help maximise consumer touchpoints and deepen penetration.

Explore logical adjacencies to future-proof baby bust

As the diaper economy contracts further due to the declining baby population, diversifying the portfolio and leveraging synergies and retail partnerships by entering related markets like baby and maternity care and senior hygiene can provide long-term growth opportunities and increase customer lifetime value.

Why read this report?
Key findings
With fewer babies being born, regions undergo varied phases of baby bust
A deepening baby bust risks future diaper demand
Cost pressure and faltering birth rates have put diaper demand under pressure
Consumers remain drawn to top names, but smaller players are gaining popularity
Evidence shows growth possible even in the most baby-busted economies
How businesses can successfully navigate diaper demand
Despite declining births, per capita demand offers key growth prospects in diapers
Develop diapers for a wider user base and occasions to deepen demand penetration
Colombia: Winny by Tecnoquímicas expands diaper range for premature babies
South Korea: Pampers’ summer line features temperature regulation attribute
Vietnam: Unicharm’s mosquito-repellent diapers fight immunity-compromising disease
The global south faces challenging prospect of a large user base with income gaps
Hayat grows share in Africa with local supply chain and multi-brand, multi-tier strategy
With delayed motherhood, parents project stronger spending propensity
Function, comfort and skin safety are key anchors of diaper spending
Pants as the most dynamic diaper segment demonstrates consumers’ value shifts
Science backing, clinical certifications and packaging callouts build value perception
Skin care-forward clean ingredients resonate with the growing natural-health linkage
US: Price sensitivity requires more specialised attributes to justify higher prices
United Arab Emirates: PineSmart extends diaper function to infection prevention
Consumers’ evolving trust in information shapes diapers’ path to purchase
Consumers embrace omnichannel experience, prioritising price and convenience
Baby care marketplace FirstCry democratises brands’ visibility across India
Indonesia: Makuku harnesses mom-led influencer marketing to solidify trust
Japan: Unicharm’s B2B subscription model further expands product reach
Babycare’s winning formula in China: A multilayered, parents-centric approach
Unlock growth beyond diapers: Explore high-impact adjacencies for diaper brands
From skin to clothing, baby care provides scope for user-centric adjacency expansion
Lifestyle positioning and retail partnerships aid Honest’s baby adjacency expansion
Winning motherhood: A new frontier beyond baby care
Postpartum care as an increasingly recognised natural adjacency to baby care
Senior hygiene helps soften baby bust’s blow, building on the rapid ageing trend
Navigating diaper demand: How to win
The evolution of demand for baby diapers
Questions we are asking
Customisable solutions to help you explore what’s next, where to play and how to win
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Tissue and Hygiene

This is the aggregation of retail and away-from home tissue and disposable hygiene products as well as Rx/reimbursement adult incontinence.

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