The nicotine industry is experiencing stable growth globally, with flat cigarette sales and increasing RRPs volumes. Heated tobacco products are growing in the low double digits, while nicotine pouches saw over 50% growth in 2024. E-vapour products are also growing, despite regulatory challenges, while stronger growth in cigarettes is noted in Turkey, India and Brazil.
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The nicotine industry is experiencing stable growth globally, with flat cigarette performance and increasing RRPs volumes. Heated tobacco products are growing in the low double digits, while nicotine pouches saw over 50% growth in 2024. E-vapour products are also growing, despite regulatory challenges, while stronger growth in cigarettes is noted in Turkey, India and Brazil.
Four of the seven global regions saw volume growth in 2024, led by MEA, at 2%, due to strong combustion and e-vapour sales. Eastern Europe grew by just under 2%, supported by combustion sales amid socioeconomic tensions, while Australasia and North America experienced sharp declines in combustion product sales. This continues to highlight the importance of geographic expansion.
Smoking prevalence is declining globally, with some regions seeing the decline accelerate. Over 20 countries are expected to experience double-digit declines over 2024-2029, indicating a need for alternatives like vaping – the prevalence of which grew by 7% in 2024 – especially in Latin America and Asia Pacific. Heated tobacco prevalence is expected to grow by about 4% annually over 2024-2029.
While product innovation focuses on flavours, filtration, evolving products and consumer experience in RRPs, as well as sustainability, regulators are increasingly focusing on adopting strict measures against combustible tobacco, flavour options and disposable devices, with unintended consequences that help the illicit market.
New synthetic nicotine alternatives, like Ceretine, Metatine and Hippotine, are emerging as consumers seek to reduce nicotine use. These compounds have distinct physiological effects and operate in a loosely regulated environment, allowing diverse marketing strategies. Currently appealing to niche users looking for productivity boosts, they have the potential to become mainstream.
Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.
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