The World Market for Nicotine

June 2025

The nicotine industry is experiencing stable growth globally, with flat cigarette sales and increasing RRPs volumes. Heated tobacco products are growing in the low double digits, while nicotine pouches saw over 50% growth in 2024. E-vapour products are also growing, despite regulatory challenges, while stronger growth in cigarettes is noted in Turkey, India and Brazil.

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Key findings

Growth in total nicotine volume

The nicotine industry is experiencing stable growth globally, with flat cigarette performance and increasing RRPs volumes. Heated tobacco products are growing in the low double digits, while nicotine pouches saw over 50% growth in 2024. E-vapour products are also growing, despite regulatory challenges, while stronger growth in cigarettes is noted in Turkey, India and Brazil.

Geographic expansion fuels growth

Four of the seven global regions saw volume growth in 2024, led by MEA, at 2%, due to strong combustion and e-vapour sales. Eastern Europe grew by just under 2%, supported by combustion sales amid socioeconomic tensions, while Australasia and North America experienced sharp declines in combustion product sales. This continues to highlight the importance of geographic expansion.

Ongoing decline in smoking prevalence

Smoking prevalence is declining globally, with some regions seeing the decline accelerate. Over 20 countries are expected to experience double-digit declines over 2024-2029, indicating a need for alternatives like vaping – the prevalence of which grew by 7% in 2024 – especially in Latin America and Asia Pacific. Heated tobacco prevalence is expected to grow by about 4% annually over 2024-2029.

Increased tension between innovation and regulation

While product innovation focuses on flavours, filtration, evolving products and consumer experience in RRPs, as well as sustainability, regulators are increasingly focusing on adopting strict measures against combustible tobacco, flavour options and disposable devices, with unintended consequences that help the illicit market.

Beyond nicotine and into the next stimulants

New synthetic nicotine alternatives, like Ceretine, Metatine and Hippotine, are emerging as consumers seek to reduce nicotine use. These compounds have distinct physiological effects and operate in a loosely regulated environment, allowing diverse marketing strategies. Currently appealing to niche users looking for productivity boosts, they have the potential to become mainstream.

Our expert’s view of nicotine in 2025
Nicotine snapshot
Tobacco data contain total nicotine volumes including e-vapour
New: Defining and creating the illicit e-vapour estimates
Key findings
Resilient industry performance despite declining cigarette sales
Top five trends in nicotine
Top five trends uncovered
Drivers of consumer markets and impact on nicotine
Adjacent industries and how they impact nicotine
Volume growth for the total industry, with positive tailwinds
Regional dynamics fuelled by socioeconomic tensions
Geographic expansion is a key component of growth
Illicit penetration remains a challenge across the board
Illicit e-vapour market penetration reveals a troubling reality
RRP prevalence continues to rise as total number of global users grows
Daily usage rebounds across categories
Consumer format replacement shows weakness for RRP
Market consolidation and growth opportunities in nicotine
Small players lead growth by leveraging the global momentum of e-vapour
Brand equity remains an important asset in the market
E-vapour innovation: Testing the limit of compliance and customisation
Heated tobacco innovation: Experience improvements for consumers
Beyond nicotine and to next stimulants
Regulatory landscape
Cigarette distribution seems to be affected only by regulation
Specialist stores are the cornerstone for cigars and cigarillos
Regulation favours online penetration for heated and smokeless tobacco
Industry resilience is evident in the forecast growth patterns
Turkey will lead global growth, driven by positive cigarette forecast
Product expansion is key, as pockets of growth for cigarettes dry out
The macroeconomic environment could impact the growth potential of the industry
Legislation will be a key factor; availability and product variety will drive volume sales
Key findings
Outside pressures persist while the industry needs to diversify and create opportunities
Our expert’s view of nicotine to 2029

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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