Top Five Trends in Nicotine

February 2025

This report highlights key trends in the nicotine industry. As global tobacco use declines, consumers are shifting towards affordable alternatives like heated tobacco products and e-vapour. While cigarettes remain popular, many are exploring dual usage for convenience and harm reduction. The industry faces regulatory challenges that impact growth, pushing participants to seek non-tobacco alternatives and new stimulants.

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Key findings

Decreasing prevalence and visibility of the industry

The global prevalence of tobacco is steadily decreasing, with these products becoming increasingly less prominent and accepted within mainstream culture. Although cigarettes were once ubiquitous, the industry is now moving towards marginal consumption, resulting in a decline in both consumers and interest.

Consumption polarisation and consumer sensitivities

Despite worldwide economic difficulties, consumers are increasingly split between high-end and budget products. Although the difference in the cigarette market remains, a growing number of affordable choices are emerging in once only premium categories like heated tobacco products (HTP) and e-vapour. The industry must find a way to maintain both value growth and affordability in the future.

Expanding landscape of nicotine consumption

Although cigarettes will remain the primary source of nicotine for many, a growing segment of consumers will adopt dual usage and explore various nicotine delivery methods. Consumers will prioritise convenience and less harmful options, while cost and accessibility will remain important considerations.

Regulatory pressures and advancements

From generational restrictions to category-specific prohibitions, the industry must contend with regulatory hurdles that reshape the make-up of vital strategic markets worldwide, guide growth prospects in reduced-risk product (RRP) categories, and possibly constrain expansion in certain sectors.

Beyond nicotine and the next stimulants

Industry participants and consumers are actively seeking effective alternatives to nicotine, and particularly tobacco, as their next stimulant. This pursuit involves exploring non-tobacco ingredients, herbal smoking products, and the integration of nicotine with cannabis. As a result, we will see a significant surge in experimentation and innovation within the industry.

Our expert’s view of Nicotine in 2023

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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