Travel Half Year Update

March 2025

The travel industry is firing on all cylinders as 2025 gears up for international travel spending almost breaking the USD2 trillion mark, transforming from a volume to value paradigm. With a new Trump presidency, international travel is already feeling the ramifications of Trumponomics with higher volatility in the global economy due to tighter trade and immigration policies. Bright spots exist in the Middle East and Africa along with Asia Pacific, with much potential for high-spending Asian tra

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Key findings

Record-breaking spending on travel

2024 marks a pivotal turning point for travel and tourism as the industry enters a new growth era, transitioning to value over volume demand. The latest forecast points to an upgrade in international tourism spending over 2024, breaking new records, amounting to USD1.8 trillion. The outlook for 2025 is positive, reaching US1.9 trillion, yet with a new Trump era in the US, tighter trade and immigration policies will stifle economic growth and tourism spending.

Ramifications of new Trump presidency

The impacts of the new Trump presidency are already taking their toll on the forecast outlook. World inbound tourism spending is set to witness a downgrade of 6 percentage points over 2025-2030, compared to the previous quarter due to uncertainty and protectionism. A further downgrade to spending is likely under a Total Trump Agenda scenario of a further 3.5 percentage points, amounting to USD85 billion, if all campaign promises are implemented.

Climate impacts in year of peak emissions

Destinations and travel businesses are at the mercy of the natural world and climate change, where recent disasters range from extreme ocean waves in Peru, wildfires in Los Angeles to an earthquake in China. Transitioning to a sustainable and resilient business model is vital to ensure that businesses are prepared for accelerating climate impacts, to ensure that emissions peak in 2025 and that the 1.5 degrees Celsius pathway for global warming is achievable to mitigate risks.

Event fever for a lasting legacy

Saudi Arabia is celebrating the news of its successful bid for hosting the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Mega events are an integral part of the country’s Vision 2030 to diversify its economy to tourism and entertainment. The initial uplift of hosting mega events is expected to contribute 1% to inbound tourism spending, but it is the long-term benefits from branding and positioning that are appealing to build a secure source of demand to ensure rapid supply growth can be met.

Scope
Key findings
Updated forecast: Record-breaking highs of USD1.9 trillion set for international travel
Global view: Strong volume and pricing momentum as travel spending breaks new records
Middle East Africa and Asia Pacific destinations steal share from Western Europe
Minority of countries see upgrade to forecast outlook due to global economic uncertainty
Majority of downgrades with negative impact of Trump and weakness in the EU
Despite inheriting strong demand, Trump presidency forecast to erode US outbound spend
China witnesses downgrade to outbound demand with still a long return to previous form
India unlocking value - opportunity to target high-spending travellers and combat seasonality
Climate change impacts never far from sight as Peru faces severe ocean waves
Smashing new records for travel spending but new headwinds to deal with
Global growth outlook: Stable but modest growth expected, while uncertainty rises
Global inflation outlook: Disinflation to accelerate in 2025, but upside risks are growing
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter - AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter - EMDE
Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
Travel model data and reporting timeline
About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model
Travel Forecast Model applications
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Travel

Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.

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