World Market for Cannabis

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Mixed bag for the industry

2023 was something of a mixed bag for the legal cannabis industry. While 13% year-on-year growth to reach USD47.1 billion represents a modest recovery from the high single-digit growth experienced in 2022, it remains some way off the 40% and 30% expansion achieved during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Legacy market dominates

Cannabis is a substance with a history of thousands of years of human use, and is currently known and consumed (no matter what governments might say) in every corner of the world. Our data estimate that 81% of the total global value is currently consumed in the illicit market, which could decline to around two thirds by 2028 if further legalisation occurs.

Forecast remains positive

Backed partly by existing legacy use, there is a broad-based growth narrative for legal cannabis. More geographies are moving from prohibition to controlling and taxing cannabinoid products. Consumers are turning to cannabis use in increasingly diverse parts of their lives - therapeutically, for relaxation, mood management and more, feeding an 18% value CAGR over 2023-2028.

Flower’s declining share

The modern cannabis consumer is diversifying away from the traditional image of ritual recreational flower consumption. There will still be ritual, as well as recreation, alongside a range of fresh use occasions involving innovative delivery mechanisms and sophisticated infused formulations, meaning that flower’s share will decline from 32% in 2023 to around 28% by 2028.

Adult-use the key driver

The fundamental driver of value growth in the global legal cannabis industry over the period to 2028 will be the wider legalisation of adult-use cannabis in the US (and potentially internationally) driving the user population up by almost 100% to over 40 million. Growth will also occur in other areas, with the CBD user population growing to around 65 million.