The use of GLP-1 drugs, which is already exerting a significant impact on the US food and beverage market, is set to rise sharply around the world in 2026. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in drugs like Ozempic, goes off-patent in much of the world that year. This means that millions of people are going to change how they eat and drink in the coming years, with significant impacts on the food and drink industry.
Usage will rise, though not to the extent that many expect
Currently, the only significant barrier that is slowing adoption is cost, both to individual users and to healthcare systems. The loss of patent protections, the development of cheaper pill formats, and a focus on the previously discovered health benefits of semaglutide, like prevention of kidney and heart disease – which will encourage more coverage from governments and insurers – all point to the cost barrier weakening significantly in the near future. There are, however, those who are convinced that negative side effects will be discovered in the future and this will reverse usage patterns; these consumers are unlikely to be swayed by price changes.
What is important to understand about usage is that there are a wide range of people influenced by GLP-1s. Most of the industry discussion has been around full-time users of the latest generations of drugs, but very few people actually take them long-term, as recommended. The GLP-1 universe instead is a diverse array that includes long-term users, users that go on and off, former users who permanently changed how they eat, people using supplements or compounds, and even people who just live in a household with a GLP-1 user and buy different groceries as a result.
Binary strategies that divide consumers into GLP-1 users and non-users are going to fail for this reason; the GLP-1 universe is complex and extends far beyond most traditional counts of users.
All categories will see some impact
A limited number of categories should see increases in demand from GLP-1 usage. These include fresh produce and convenient formats of protein, like yoghurt or protein shakes. On average, though, most categories will see moderate, though undramatic, volume declines. This will be particularly significant in alcohol, sugar-sweetened beverages and baked goods
Implications for innovation
In a difficult period for new product launches, many brands have looked to the growing number of GLP-1 users as a target for innovation. This is a sensible option, as usage is set to increase demand for products with a wide range of attributes. Portion control, high protein and digestive health are the most important areas, but there are implications of GLP-1 usage that are less obvious (the side-effect known as “Ozempic face”, for example, could be addressed with beauty-from-within claims).
It is important to note that this will align with what many non-users are already looking for. Explicit marketing towards GLP-1 users may therefore be a mistake, as that risks turning off others who are also looking for products that are nutrient dense, high protein, etc, but who may think the product being marketed is not for them.
Ozempic’s role in a volatile market
This is a period of great uncertainty in the market overall. Pricing pressures, climate change, geopolitical conflict and recession risks all loom over the food and beverage industries. In this uncertain world, that GLP-1s are going to exert a larger impact on eating habits in the future is as sure of a bet as any at the moment. The time to prepare is now.
For more details, please see Euromonitor’s full report, The GLP-1 Revolution: Insights for Food and Beverages