Snacks: Half-Year Update 2023

January 2024

As the cost-of-living crisis carries on, pricing moderation, volume recovery, and attending to heightened value perceptions have become priority across snacks. The disinflation process has begun but is likely to land differently across markets and categories, if at all, as supply and demand balances are sought out. Beyond prices, healthier snacking and the targeting of nutrients of concern (sugar, salt, and saturated fat) remain key to snacks’ future growth.

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Key Findings

Western Europe regional sales slump begins to turnaround and spark global disinflation

In 2022, Western Europe saw a decline in snacks value and volume as high inflation and the impact of the war in Ukraine weighed on consumers’ snacking habits. 2023 is expected to turn sales around as the wider industry pushes for more reasonable product prices and retailers lead the way on disinflationary actions.

Volumes remain a central point of concern, but may contradict value

As consumers have been unable to afford as many snacks as in the past, given high inflation, the industry is set to focus on improving volume growth in the years to come for more sustainable, balanced growth. The expected improvements in volumes, however, may come as contractions to value growth – especially as inflationary pressures ease and price growth normalises.

Confectionery commodities like cocoa and sugar see the greatest resistance to price relief

Input cost inflation has remained elevated above expectations for more than a year, triggered in part by the pandemic. Confectionery commodities like sugar and chocolate are surfacing as continued inflationary pockets for snacks. A lot of this is pointed to poor crop yields and the policies aimed to curb demand for sugar.

Inflation normalisation in snacks expected to be fragmented – health helps

As the disinflationary process has begun to show, snack category prices, and category prices by market, are showing varying degrees of change – from the still above 100% inflation in Argentina snack bars to the price drops in China snack bars. The process towards normalised prices is set to be fragmented. But as prices moderate, healthier snacking demands are expected to grow and better for you (BFY) innovations are set to deliver on value for money demands.

About this briefing
Scope
Key findings
The value of snacking is expected to hold up as the aftermaths of high inflation unfold…
…though snacks inflation across key markets remains elevated
Grocery disinflation in Western Europe is expected to return snacks sales to growth
Amid taming cost inflation, global snacks volume prospects have seen considerable shrinkage
Volumes remain a point of focus as food disinflationary actions sweep across nations
The many layers of global inflation
Confectionery commodities, cocoa and sugar, contradict the easing of price pressures
Moderating sugar consumption concerns and accompanying costs is not in the sweetest spot
Leading snack markets are grappling with deteriorating demand due to cost consciousness
Disinflation and product price adjustments are set to act ambivalently on future growth
And those adjustments are set to come at different rates across categories and regions
The industry will continue to invest in brand value and innovation for sales growth in 2024…
…while consumers will continue to find ways to counter the high costs of snacking by:
Healthier snacking continues to trend and is expected to carry snacks into the future
The incorporation of better for you and healthy elements will continue to take many forms
Conclusions/takeaways from the snacks half-year update 2023
Global baseline outlook: Global growth expected to see post-pandemic low point in 2024
Global inflation expected to moderate notably amid ongoing global economic slowdown
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: EMDE
About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model (1)
About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model (2)
About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
Data and reporting timeline: Snacks
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