Snacks: Half-Year Update H1 2024

January 2025

Even as the challenges with inflation seem to be moderating, the future remains uncertain, and consumers feel it. Positive societal development trends favouring snackification are supporting snacks value and volume growth; however, inflation-uncoupled growth, new political pressures, and consumers’ changing demands have led to a slowing of snack velocities. Savvy industry players are tapping into new investment areas to get ahead of potential growth deterrents and assure future success.

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Key findings

Snacks is entering an era of more challenging growth

Snacks’ value forecast across most categories has seen slight contraction. Easing inflation, unfavourable dollar exchange rates, shifting demographics, and rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to a slowing value growth forecast across the majority of regions – impacting even the fastest-growth emerging regions.

Cost, and value, concerns remain a priority for the industry and consumers

Price sensitivity remains high for consumers despite economic resettling. New factors are expected to further challenge the potential for price stability (eg commodity constraints, tariffs, political regimes, etc). The matter of price, and value realisation, is ongoing, prompting actions from leading category players.

Volume growth efforts clash with consumption inhibitors like political reforms

The majority of snacks categories have benefited from slower inflation growth as well as expanded distribution, and increased marketing and promotional activity; however, political pressures to reduce marketing and volume promotion capabilities and wider consumption competition, among other factors, will continue to challenge future volume growth.

Manufacturers reveal their unique and vast array of growth strategies

Mergers and acquisitions, seasonal investments, private label, premiumisation, channel restrategisation, occasion expansion, novel formats and flavours, and community and cultural relevance are just a few areas where manufacturers are taking their portfolios to drive growth.

About this briefing
Scope
Key findings
Snacks forecast value performance slows, proving growth is more difficult to attain
The fastest value growth regions are holding onto price scrutiny amidst economic recovery
Historic price and inflation surges that contributed to value growth are set to lessen
The industry is responding with a reprioritisation of future growth focus areas…
…though a more dynamic food regulatory environment is set to challenge snack players
Stronger innovation pipelines will support industry-needed product variety and fuel interest
Despite active volume growth restoration strategies, the outcomes are mixed
Some promotions and longer-term trend investments are showing signs of paying off
Prices remain dynamic with downward adjustments seen in select markets and categories
Commodities to see relief in year ahead, but hikes remain likely amidst costly eco-concerns
Case in point: the cocoa crisis should not be overlooked as a one-off incidence
Chocolate mitigation investments intensify and range to secure future supply
Manufacturers continue to maximise snacks’ utility through ambitious expansion efforts
Conclusions/takeaways from the snacks half-year update 2024
Global baseline outlook: Growth prospects are stable, but below potential
Global inflation outlook: On track to be back to target in 2025
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: EMDE
Data and reporting timeline: Snacks
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