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Loyalty Under Pressure: Navigating Economic Volatility, Tariffs and Consumer Fatigue

6/30/2025
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As global economic conditions tighten and consumer behaviour shifts, loyalty programmes across regions are being reimagined to stay relevant and resilient. From inflation-fighting strategies to paid access models, loyalty players are adapting to rising costs, tariffs, cautious consumer spending and evolving customer expectations with a mix of innovation, agility and localised strategy.

Everyday value comes to the fore

In mature markets such as the US and Canada, coalition loyalty programmes continue to play a significant role, with offers across categories like travel, fuel and grocery, but a transformation is underway.

With inflation and tariffs eroding disposable incomes (eg projected real income growth for middle-income US consumers dropping to 4.0% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024), the promotional focus and loyalty proposition are shifting towards everyday essentials

Source: Euromonitor International

Loyalty schemes now prioritise discounts and bonus points on fuel purchases, grocery trips and even pharmacy visits – areas with high frequency and perceived necessity. Where once aspirational rewards like air miles or hotel upgrades dominated, everyday value now reigns supreme. Premium programmes are also being recalibrated to include short-haul domestic getaways as rewards, making perks more attainable.Chart showing Inbound Tourism

Loyalty as a financial safety net

In markets grappling with extreme economic volatility – such as parts of Latin America – loyalty is increasingly seen as a tool to retain customer value. In Argentina, where hyperinflation poses a significant challenge, some programmes have introduced mechanisms to protect the real value of accumulated points. To preserve consumer trust, some foodservice programmes guarantee fixed point pricing – if an item costs 1,000 points today, it will still cost 1,000 points six months later, regardless of currency fluctuations. This enhances loyalty’s emotional appeal, turning it into a financial buffer.

Meanwhile, consumer demand in the region for instant gratification is met through loyalty-exclusive deals and guaranteed savings on everyday items – creating a perception of “free” value. While short-term incentives are effective, the real challenge is sustaining long-term engagement to grow loyalty’s value contribution – projected to reach 25% in Chile, 33% in Mexico and 27% in Brazil in 2025, particularly in the restaurant segment.

Rethinking retention strategies

Economic pressure is also leading to increased loyalty member churn. Many consumers are cancelling memberships, citing affordability or lack of perceived value. In response, brands are rethinking the core purpose of their loyalty programmes – not just as tools for customer retention, but also as acquisition levers.

Programmes are increasingly using partner incentives, trial memberships or onboarding rewards to hook new users early. For instance, upon joining, members receive discounts on their next three purchases or bonus points for completing a short profile – providing instant value and allowing for future personalisation.

Rising operating costs and the withdrawal of partners are putting the sustainability of programmes to the test. In markets where consumers shy away from long-term contracts (eg South Africa), early and personalised re-engagement strategies, such as time-limited offers or AI-driven reminders, are critical for renewals and ongoing value delivery.

Moving beyond transactions with strategic partnerships

Amid these economic pressures, loyalty is evolving behind the scenes through deeper data-sharing partnerships to unlock mutual value. Loyalty providers are using internal analytics to help retail partners optimise operations to offer exclusive rewards to members and staff.

This kind of value co-creation shifts loyalty from a cost centre to a strategic asset – especially in discount-saturated markets (eg Saudi Arabia) where constant price-cutting breeds loyalty fatigue. By embedding targeted, data-driven value, brands can differentiate themselves in a crowded market.

Promotions on the rise – or back to basics?

Economic volatility is changing how loyalty is perceived – even in mature markets – shifting it from a perk to a practical financial tool. This is especially true for younger consumers managing rent, bills and daily expenses. The Euromonitor Voice of the Consumer: Loyalty Survey 2025 shows 35% of Millennials join loyalty programmes for free products, an equal share of Gen Z seek rewards redeemable with other brands, while 61% of US Baby Boomers prioritise discounts and special offers.

To address these shifting behaviours, brands are reviving high-impact promotions – point accelerators, behavioural bonuses and tiered rewards tied to repeat visits or high-value purchases, boosting engagement and generating rich data to power future targeting.

Whether through midweek point boosts or time-sensitive offers, the aim is to embed loyalty into daily routines – delivering consistent economic value when consumers need it most.

Read our report, Top Five Trends in Loyalty for more analysis on customer loyalty in 2025.

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