Although seeing a slight slowdown in growth, in 2024 baked goods in India maintained nearly double-digit retail current value growth. Baked goods has seen a significant rise in hybrid bakery products that blend traditional Indian flavours with Western baking techniques. While croissants and sourdough continue to gain popularity, new variants infused with regional ingredients such as ghee, saffron, jaggery, and masala chai flavours are entering the mainstream. Major fmcg players and premium baker

This report examines how Barilla Holdings SpA, the global leader in the pasta market, has navigated the challenges from inflationary pressures and intensifying price-driven competition. It highlights Barilla's strategic expansion into the baked goods market and reflects on the company’s commitment to health by introducing healthier options catering to evolving consumer preferences for both indulgence and wellness.

Baked goods in Thailand is expected to see continued growth in both retail volume and current value terms in 2024, as inflationary pressures ease. Packaged bread and cakes are set to show higher retail volume growth rates compared with the previous year, driven by local consumers seeking affordable breakfast options. Given frequent purchases, consumers favour products that strike a balance between quality and price. Specifically, packaged bread such as plain and whole wheat bread, which are ofte

In 2024, unit price growth of baked goods in Indonesia began to normalise after two consecutive years of steep increases. This is largely attributable to the restoration of global supply chains and easing tensions among major exporters, which is significant for Indonesia due to its substantial reliance on imported raw materials like wheat. As a consequence of this slower unit price increase, baked goods experienced positive retail volume growth in 2024. This was contrast to the flat performance

Retail value sales of baked goods are set to rise significantly in current terms in Israel in 2024. This will in part be driven by an ongoing increase in prices. In June 2024, Angel Bakery announced a price increase of 9% for its non-supervised products. Around the same time, Osem announced a price increase on its popular packaged cakes by an average of 7%. At the same time, the market is seeing value driven up by a premiumisation trend, as local consumers are displaying a growing interest in pu

The macroeconomic scenario in Brazil in 2023 and 2024 has been marked by a mix of positive and challenging factors. While the country has experienced robust economic growth, inflationary pressures and rising interest rates have posed significant challenges for consumers and businesses. In this context, Brazilian consumers have adopted a more cautious approach to spending. This shift has led to a growing preference for value-oriented products and brands, with consumers actively seeking deals, dis

In 2024, high ingredient and energy prices have continued to pose significant challenges to baked goods in Germany. Producers remain under pressure due to elevated costs of essential ingredients such as flour, sugar, butter, and eggs. Factors such as climate change, the spillover effects of wars, and volatile agricultural yields have kept prices unstable, directly impacting profit margins. Additionally, the energy-intensive baking process, particularly reliant on gas and electricity, remains a k

In 2024, the baked goods market in Switzerland experienced a stagnated performance in retail volume terms but a 2% increase in retail value growth, largely due to the impact of inflation. The rise in prices of key raw materials such as cereals, sugar, and cocoa, along with the increasing costs of transportation, logistics, and energy, significantly impacted retail prices. These cost pressures were passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for baked goods nationwide.

Overall baked goods in Vietnam is set to record continued total volume growth in 2024. A large share of volume sales of baked goods in Vietnam can be attributed to leavened bread, which is considered an essential product in some households. During times of economic uncertainty and a difficult international environment, goods considered as essential to local consumers tend to maintain resilient demand. In comparison, indulgent products may struggle to maintain demand without large-scale promotion

Retail demand for baked goods in South Africa continues to decline in 2024, driven mainly by higher unit prices. The largest category of bread continues to record volume declines as consumers switch to more affordable staples that stretch further, such as rice or maize meal. While food price increases have eased compared to the previous year, the average unit price of bread continues to record double-digit growth due to global wheat prices, the strength of the local currency, production, energy

Baked goods are expected to register healthy current value and moderate constant value growth in 2024 and continue to be the most important staple in Uruguay. However, volume sales are expected to fall slightly, due to its high maturity. That being said, baked goods and in particular bread is benefitting from the recent labelling laws which were introduced in 2021, which is seen a sharp drop off in breakfast cereal consumption, due to its high sugar content.

In 2024, Morocco has experienced its fifth consecutive weak agricultural season, a situation caused by persistently unfavourable climatic conditions that have hampered cereal harvests. This prolonged strain on local agricultural output has compelled manufacturers to increase reliance on imported cereals to meet domestic demand. The resulting surge in raw material costs, including wheat flour and sugar, has driven up the prices of baked goods, thereby exerting pressure on consumer budgets. Conseq

After enduring several years of consistent decline, baked goods in Lithuania shows signs of stabilising in 2024. While sales have not surged upward, this levelling off represents a significant improvement following a protracted downturn. The stabilisation is partly attributed to a plateau in health and wellness-driven shifts, with some consumers finding a balance between reduced carbohydrate consumption and the enduring cultural importance of bread in Lithuanian diets. The category has also bene

Bread is experiencing a decline in volume sales in 2024 despite the growing population in Kazakhstan. This is linked to a shift in the eating habits of the local population as an increasing focus on healthy eating is leading to reduced bread consumption. As more consumers prioritise health and weight management, many are reducing their bread consumption to avoid weight gain.

While current and constant value sales are expected to increase for baked goods in Tunisia in 2024, volume sales are expected to be unchanged, in what is a bleak economic picture, with continuing high inflation and worryingly high levels of debt. While unpackaged leavened bread is subsidised, there are prices rises across all other product areas, due to the rising costs of products like wheat, flour, sugar and nuts. Players have responded by focusing on smaller size offerings, in order to reduce

Overall, baked goods in Uzbekistan in 2024 is expected to register double-digit current value percentage growth, though constant value is expected to be much more moderate, as high inflation still persists. In particular, flour prices continue to rise. That being said, volume growth is positive, partly supported by continuing population. Also, as consumers lead increasingly busy lives, households are baking bread much less and this supports volume growth.

In 2024, consumer awareness regarding health and wellness has driven a significant shift towards healthier baked goods. Products such as multi-grain breads, low-sugar dessert mixes, and gluten-free alternatives have become increasingly popular, with consumers prioritising low-calorie counts, natural ingredients, and freshly made items. Traditional bakeries and new entrants alike have expanded their offerings to include these health-oriented options. Furthermore, manufacturers have been highlight

Cakes and pastries have continued to thrive in the Netherlands in 2024, despite ongoing efforts by government organisations to encourage the consumption of healthier, whole foods. When consumers opt for these products, their primary concern is not health but indulgence. Choices in this category are overwhelmingly dictated by taste and the desire for a treat, often associated with celebrating special occasions or enjoying a moment of luxury. For many, pastries, in particular, represent an "afford

In 2024, baked goods in Latvia continues to face significant challenges, with bread – the dominant product – remaining on a downward trajectory. The category’s struggle is deeply tied to broader demographic trends, as Latvia's shrinking population reduces the overall consumer base. Competition from other staple carbohydrates such as rice and pasta further compounds this decline, as consumers increasingly diversify their dietary habits. These changes are reinforced by health and wellness trends t

Baked goods in Greece continued to be affected by inflation and price increases at the end of the review period. While the rate of inflation slowed, it remained relatively high for the market in 2024. Moreover, average unit prices rose significantly, if slower than in 2023. Thus, consumers remained price-sensitive and on the lookout for the best deals. Off-trade volume sales continued to drop, albeit slowly, while foodservice volume sales rose as consumers spent more time out of home. However, t

In May 2024, the Government of the Republic of Serbia adopted a Regulation mandating the production and sale of bread made from T-500 flour, with a prescribed maximum retail price of 54 dinars and a producer price set at 46.31 dinars. This regulatory intervention has been implemented to prevent significant disruptions in the market and to safeguard the standard of living for the population. This move reflects the government's ongoing efforts to control essential food prices, particularly in the

Baked goods, despite their essential status in the Nigerian diet, have experienced a notable decline in volume sales in 2024. This downturn has been driven by a combination of inflationary pressures and significant increases in product prices, which have eroded consumer purchasing power. The primary cause has been the rising import costs of wheat, sugar, and other key ingredients, exacerbated by the depreciation of the Naira. Between April 2023 and April 2024, the cost of a 50kg bag of wheat flo

In 2024, both retail volume and retail current value sales of baked goods in Japan are set to experience growth. This progress can be attributed to three factors. First, the price increases seen for baked goods have been smaller compared with other categories. Second, pastries, which accounts for over 40% of all baked goods in retail volume and current value terms, performed well. Lastly, the recovery of both inbound and domestic travel has boosted demand for cakes as souvenirs.

Overall, baked goods in Guatemala are expected to register moderate volume growth, as continuing population growth supports volume sales. However, there is expected to a marginal fall in constant value sales, as high costs continue to hit profitability. Unpackaged wheat and corn tortillas continue to account for most value sales, though pita bread and in particular packaged pita breads is seeing significant growth, from both local and imported brands. Pita bread is popular with higher income con