Affordability remains the leading consideration when making purchasing decisions for most South Africans and as wheat prices have increased, consumers have been forced to replace bread with more affordable staple foods such as rice or maize meal. While this has resulted in retail volume declines for leavened bread, this scenario is predicted to marginally ease over the course of the forecast period.
The cost of living is expected to continue to rise over the forecast period, which means that already price- sensitive consumers will scrutinise the cost of goods even more, leading to greater demand for affordable essential staples such as bread. Local player Tiger Consumer Brands is calling for the formation of a partnership between local farmers and large food producers to reduce the reliance on imported raw materials, such as wheat, which makes the industry vulnerable to price fluctuations.
Much of the demand for packaged cakes and pastries in South Africa is driven by strong innovation from major retailers’ private label lines, and the normalisation of social occasions post-pandemic. Traditionally, packaged cakes, with their higher price points, targeted higher-income, time-poor consumers looking for quality options for special celebrations.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in South Africa with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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