Despite an anticipated population decline, retail volume sales of baked goods in Japan are expected to continue to see a continuous slow rise, while retail current value sales are projected to see a stronger but still moderate increase over the next five years. Pastries, the largest category within baked goods, is expected to see steady growth in the forecast period, in line with the consumer trend of prioritising time efficiency, dubbed taipa, as life returns to pre-pandemic normality and becomes busier.
Health-consciousness and interest in nutrition have been growing amongst consumers since before the pandemic. With the onset of COVID-19 in Japan, the health and wellness trend accelerated, as consumers sought to mitigate the risk of contracting the virus, and manage weight gain due to reduced physical activity during remote working.
With the escalating prices of imported wheat, the significance of domestic wheat production in Japan has heightened. Given Japan’s humid conditions, which are not ideal for wheat cultivation, domestic production only accounts for 16% of the country's total consumption; therefore depending heavily on imported wheat.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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