In the US, growth for retail e-commerce will continue to outpace growth for offline retail in current value terms over the forecast period. Third-party marketplaces will drive much of this increase, as they do not require inventory investment from their platform hosts, and offer a revenue stream in the form of service fees.
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLM) on the part of major e-commerce retailers promises more personalised online shopping experiences for consumers over the forecast period. In October 2024, Walmart announced a comprehensive new adaptive retail strategy designed to more fully integrate Walmart shopper data and product inventory data using AI, Generative AI (GenAI), Augmented Reality (AR), and Immersive Commerce platforms.
In February 2025, newly installed President Trump signed an executive order demanding the stoppage of packages entering the US under the “de minimis” exception, legislation which had allowed parcels valued at less than USD800 to enter the US without paying import tax. The president’s order reflected a political and business environment in which the “de minimis” exception has been linked not only to the importation of illegal drugs, but also heightened competition with China-affiliated marketplaces.
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Retail E-Commerce
Online sales of new and used goods to the public from a business for personal or household consumption. This figure includes those purchases made via online marketplaces, assuming it is a business-to-consumer purchase. This figure includes the purchase of mobile apps, games, in-app purchases and downloaded versions of recorded music, film, video games, books, journals and magazines. Note: The streaming versions of these media types, which are not tracked in Retailing, are captured in Streaming Services E-Commerce. Goods purchased via quick-delivery services, such as Amazon Prime, are captured here, whereas the subscription fee for such a service is captured in Other E-Commerce. Retail purchases made via hyperlocal or third-party delivery platforms are also included here, while the delivery fees associated with such services are included in Other E-Commerce. This category excludes the following industries and channels: • Specialist retailers of motor vehicles; motorcycles, vehicle parts and fuel • The rental, hire and leasing of products • Wholesalers, cash and carry outlets • Consumer-to-consumer transactions • Informal retail which is not declared to tax authorities
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Retail E-Commerce research and analysis database.
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