Small local grocers is projected to experience further declines in both value sales (at constant 2024 prices) and outlet numbers over the forecast period. Cost-of-living pressures and budget-conscious shopping behaviour will likely drive consumers towards value-focused grocery options, including discounters and large supermarkets.
Holland & Barrett and other health-oriented grocers may continue to find resilience by expanding their health and wellness ranges, introducing a great variety of functional foods, supplements, and sustainable product options to meet the growing demand for preventative health solutions. The channel leader announced plans for further expansion with the addition of up to 50 new stores in the UK over 2025, in addition to continuing the refurbishment of existing sites.
Over the forecast period, some independent small local grocers will likely face the greatest challenges as inflationary pressures and declining consumer purchasing power limit discretionary spending. With limited ability to offer competitive prices, closures are likely to increase.
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Small local grocers are mostly independent retail outlets (with a selling space of under 400 square metres), kiosks, market stalls or street vendors, owned by families and/or run on an individual basis, and with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries. Small local grocers also includes ethnic grocery stores that specialize in foreign brands and food types, health food stores, confectioners/newsagents/tobacconists (CTNs), food & drink souvenir stores, legally registered mobile shops that are run out of a truck, and regional specialty stores. Retail sales from farmers markets, farms, vineyards, or similar producers are also included in small local grocers. Outlets located within wet markets in Southeast Asia (often located in government-owned multi-story buildings) should be counted as separate outlets.
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Small Local Grocers research and analysis database.
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