Baked goods in China is set to see slow and stable retail volume and current value growth rates throughout the forecast period, although the rates of increase are likely to see a slowing trend. Growth is expected across all categories except dessert mixes.
In 2024, it is anticipated that the combined share of the top five brands in baked goods in China in retail value terms will be less than 10%, indicating a highly fragmented competitive landscape. This can primarily be attributed to the dominance of small and medium-sized players in China, coupled with the severe homogenisation of products that are easily replicated and lack a core competitive edge, resulting in low consumer loyalty.
Driven by advances in cold chain technology and the growing focus on cost efficiency amongst foodservice businesses, frozen cakes, sweet pies and tarts in China is projected to record double-digit growth in volume terms across both retail and foodservice channels in 2024, and high single-digit CAGRs are expected over the next five years.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in China with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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