Over 2023 and 2024, rising unit prices drove higher levels of retail value sales growth on the baked goods landscape. Unit price growth of baked goods is expected to slow from 2025 onwards, leading retail sales to rise at a current value CAGR of 3% (2024 constant value CAGR of 1%).
As consumers are expected to lead increasingly busy lifestyles over the next five years, many will dedicate less time to being at home, resulting in a notable rise in skipped breakfasts and a decline in demand for traditional breakfast cereals. Instead, there will be an ongoing shift towards snacking, perceived to be more convenient.
Throughout the forecast period, traditional bakeries in New Zealand will face increasing competition from modern retail channels, particularly as urbanisation rises. Around 87% of the population lives in cities, with many of these consumers using supermarket chains and providing convenient one-stop shopping for a wide range of goods, including bakery products.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Baked Goods industry in New Zealand, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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