As a destination, the UK is seeing a continual and gradual shift in reliance from domestic to inbound tourism. Inbound flows are expected to see record numbers over 2024 as a whole.
Given the UK’s island location, passenger flows and connectivity by air are central to the fortunes of both inbound and outbound tourism. In 2024, air passengers were increasingly willing to travel beyond the traditional southern European holiday destinations, increasingly opting for longer haul destinations, which, given their higher fares, have helped raise overall airline spending.
Capacity has emerged a key factor in the performance of hotels in 2024, characterised by strong growth in the supply of hotel rooms, with a short-term risk of oversupply. The potential oversupply is being felt more in regional destinations outside of London, where hotels have far higher exposure to the domestic market, which is expected to decline in the short term.
The shift in favour of outbound travel in 2024 benefits intermediaries as outbound travellers have a higher propensity to book via an intermediary than domestic travellers. Whereas advanced bookings were showing double-digit growth in early 2024, the sharp price increases post-pandemic are slowing significantly, with mainstream tour operators such as TUI and Jet2 finding it difficult to increase their prices.
Travel and tourism in the UK is currently at a tipping point, with consumer spending under cost-of-living pressures and relatively high interest rates. Local consumers like to travel and volumes are expected to increase, but much of the outlook for value growth over the forecast period will depend largely on the performance of the UK economy.
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Travel
Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.
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