While the new National governments revocation of the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act garnered significant headlines in 2023, this is not expected to have any meaningful impact on the decline of cigarette sales over the forecast period. Rather, this decline can be expected to be attributed to factors such as increasing health awareness, as well as increased competition from e-vaping products, with these factors contributing to smokers either quitting or reducing their consumption.
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic and international supply chains into New Zealand have been severely disrupted, which were amplified by damage to infrastructure caused by the flooding across the country in early 2023, and a weak New Zealand dollar making imports more expensive. As such, all consumer categories across the country have been subjected to significant unit price growth over the review period driving up overall inflation.
While New Zealand’s geographic isolation and robust border controls position it favourably to combat illicit tobacco trade, a market has still emerged over the past decade. The shift towards vaping products which has seen a significant contraction in legal product sales, has had a similar effect on the illicit tobacco market in New Zealand.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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