Retail demand for cigarettes is South Africa is set to continue declining over the forecast. This trend will be driven by a number of factors, including a further rise in unit prices - forcing some consumers to either reduce their frequency of purchase or turn to the illicit market – in addition to increasing awareness of health implications supported by government benefits, and major manufacturers such as Philip Morris and British American Tobacco aiming to reduce the production of their cigarettes and focus more on non-combustibles.
Increased taxes will continue to encourage some consumers to move away from cigarettes. However, it is the combined implementation of the annual excise tax and the harsh impact of high inflation that will contribute to a further volume sales decline in the coming years, forcing some consumers to turn to cheaper alternatives amid looming disposable income challenges, or perceived healthier alternatives that offer long-term affordability.
Diplomats are no longer able to purchase an unlimited number of cigarettes in South Africa, and are now limited to two packs of 30 cigarettes per day, or 1,833 cigarettes per month. Therefore, competition among brands has intensified.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in South Africa with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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