As cigarette manufacturers will seek to enhance their market resilience by expanding their product portfolios to incorporate “reduced risk products” (RRP), such as smokeless tobacco, nicotine pouches, heated tobacco products, and e-vapour products, cigarettes are expected to take a less important role in their strategy. Amongst the largest tobacco players, Philip Morris in particular is expected to further invest in RRP, as the company is seeking to build its future on smoke-free products.
It should be noted that the share of illicit cigarettes is set to fall further in the forecast period, so a reason for the decline in legal sales is not an increase in illicit trade. In addition to a switch in tobacco categories, the anticipated ongoing decrease in cigarette consumption is expected to be linked to the forecast persisting trend of a slow decline in cigarette smoking prevalence amongst the Swiss population.
With retail volume sales of cigarettes set to see a slow and stable decline throughout the forecast period, even niche cigarette brands which offer a distinct positioning compared with the major brands may struggle to remain relevant. This is illustrated by Koch & Gsell, which produces the Heimat brand, a pre-rolled cannabis cigarette containing a mix of tobacco and hemp leaves, which entered bankruptcy in early 2024.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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